With the Democratic convention behind us, I thought a quick analysis of the Electoral College was in order. Post-convention polling shows John Kerry
leading by an average of 2 to 4 points in the national popular vote. But as we all know, it's the
electoral vote that wins the presidency. The map below is where I see things at this point in the cycle, based on polling and a gut hunch.
Kerry/Edwards: 296
Bush/Cheney: 242
A few quick points:
Florida. Three polls have taken place since the end of the Kerry coronation. One has Kerry up 3, another one has him up by 7, and the third has Bush up by 1. These 27 electoral votes are going to fought for with a passion that will make 2000 look like childs play. I am painting it Kerry blue based on the average of the three recent polls.
Pennsylvania. The President has attempted to put this industrial state in play. Al Gore won here by 5 points last time and the Republicans seem to think they can take it in 2004. They don't have a prayer. With most "battleground" states polling within the margin of error, two polls released this week show Kerry leading in Pennsylvania by 8 and 12 points respectively.
Michigan. Another state the Bushies would love to turn red. The latest Survey USA poll done there shows Kerry up by 11.
Ohio. The Kerry campaign is trying desperately to put the Buckeye state back in the Democratic column. The state has lost 300,000 jobs since 2001, but social conservatives seem to be holding strong. Mr. Bush currently holds a 5 point lead over Sen. Kerry.
Tennessee. Two recent Zogby polls show a slight Kerry lead, but I don't believe it. Unless Kerry wins a Reagan like landslide, Tennessee will stay with Bush. (Hey...Al Gore couldn't win it!) But there is one southern state where Kerry has a chance...
Virginia. The state went for Bush comfortably in 2000, and hasn't gone Democratic in a presidential election since 1964 (not even for Carter in 1976), but has been trending toward the Democrats in recent elections. John Edwards could help Kerry here in November. Recent polls show Bush with an average 3-point lead. As such I am keeping it red on the map, but don't be at all surprised if Virginia turns out to be a major upset on Election Night.
More national and state-by-state polling can be found here. And another take on the electoral vote is here.
It is only early August, and the Republicans will hold their convention at the end of the month. The race is still mighty fluid and anything can happen between now and November.
But right now, the trend seems to be in Kerry's favor.
I will revisit this map after the Republicans meet in New York, and then will post semi-regular updates as the fall campaign progresses.
Cross posted at Points West.