Here is another look at the electoral map one week after the Republican convention (I did took a
similar look right after the Dem event). Bush's dirty swift boat ads - and Kerry's lack of response - hurt the Democratic ticket. Post convention polling shows Bush leading anywhere from 2 to 9 points. It's still early and, as
Mort Kondracke says, neither candidate has closed the deal yet. Here is how I see the map today:
Bush 275
Kerry 233
Tied 30
Pennsylvania: The average of
three polls done in PA since August 28 shows both candidates tied at 47.2% each. Kerry was leading by double digits last month. The swift boat ads and Kerry's ill-timed August vacation seem to have shifted the landscape here tremendously. I still think this state will go for Kerry. But it will be a hard fight. Without these 21 electoral votes in his column, I don't see how Kerry gets to 270.
Colorado: The only polling available is pre-GOP convention and the average of those polls shows Mr. Bush and Mr. Kerry tied at 47% each. The state is winnable (Clinton won it 1992), and the current tie indicates the President is vulnerable.
Wisconsin: The state has been trending toward the Republicans and the once solid blue state seems to have turned red over the last few weeks, with Bush leading by 1 to 3 points in various polls.
West Virginia: Bush's 2000 upset in this normally Democratic stronghold seems bound to be repeated. He currently leads by 9 points.
Another look at the electoral map here. And a look at polling here. And an animated look at how the Electoral Vote has changed since May here.
Bush's convention bounce is starting to even out and by next week I expect the numbers and the map to change a bit.
Kerry needs to get his rear-end in gear and step up to the plate. For now, this race is nowhere near over.
Cross posted at Points West.